Sep 15, 2017. Apple is using a built-in eSIM, a design decision that takes up one hundredth of the space of a traditional SIM card and eliminating the need. Super Bowl LII means good news for her ice cream truck and other side gigs, but not everyone will score. MINNEAPOLIS—Katie Romanski is hoping Super Bowl. Visual foxpro serial communication arduino nano. [Figure 2] Real mean household income by quintile For the last several years, consumer spending has been the engine that has kept the American economy growing. Between 2014 and 2017, annual growthin inflation-adjusted (real) consumer spending outpaced growth of broader gross domestic product by an average of more than seven-tenths of a percentage point. That dynamic has shifted in 2018, and over the first half of the year, it was real GDP that took the pole position. But this reversal didn't come from a marked slowdown on the consumers' part. After a surge in spending during the fourth quarter of last year, during which a very strong holiday season ushered in a 3.9-percent annualized rate of real consumer spending growth, consumers took a breather in the first quarter of this year, then sprang back into action with a 3.8-percent growth rate in the second. Surveys of consumer opinion reveal exceptionally positive views on the economy. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped in September to its highest level since September2000, while the mid-October reading of the University of Michigan's measure of consumer sentiment also remained elevated. Measures of consumers' views on whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars and large appliances are also fairly high. What is driving this optimism? A very strong jobs picture has also been a major factor. The labor market has been steadily improving during what is now the second-longest economic expansion in American history, and it is unusually 'tight'—companies are reporting a high demand for workers, and it is easier to get a job right now than usual. The rate of headline unemployment—or the number of people who officially say they do not have a job and are looking for work—was 3.7 percent in September, the lowest level in the last 48 years. Additionally, the number of available job openings has been greater than the number of Americans looking for work since this March. (See Figure 1.) This tightness in the job market is pulling workers who had previously been discouraged in their job searches off the sidelines. Bureau of Labor Statistics' 'U6' measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those who are part-time but would prefer to be full-time, was 7.5 percent in September, 0.1 point from the lowest since April 2001. And the proportion of 'prime-aged' (25-54) workers who are participating in the labor force—either by working or by looking for work—has been on an upswing since late 2015. When businesses can't get the workers they need, they often raise wages to make their available positions more attractive or to hold on to the talent they do have. This pressure is finally producing an uptick in aggregate wage growth. Average hourly earnings of all employees of private businesses grew 2.8 percent versus the year before in the third quarter, while the U.S. Employment Cost Index for wages and salaries in the second quarter was up 3.0 percent; these readings were both the fastest year-on-year growth rates since the Great Recession. ![]() On top of that, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 put some extra cash in workers' pockets as a result of lower tax withholdings. In short, real disposable income is on the rise. In addition, total household net worth has risen strongly in recent years, thanks to growing home and equity prices, and surged past its pre-recession peak in 2012. The result is that American consumers are feeling wealthier—a plus for consumer spending and retail sales. We have also not yet seen the kind of risky spending behavior that marked the period leading up to the Great Recession. The ratio of household debt payments to disposable income in the US (the 'financial obligations ratio') has only seen a gradual increase since 2014 and remains substantially beneath its pre-recession high. The same goes for the total amount of inflation-adjusted debt carried by the average household. Indeed, this adjusted debt total declined in the first half of 2018. And, as revealed by new data in July, Americans' rate of personal saving has been steady since 2013, holding at a level higher than it was for most of the period since the late 1990s. ![]() Consumers are putting more aside for a rainy day than previously thought. Certainly, there are features of today's consumer economy that could foretell trouble ahead. One wildcard remains the Trump administration's still-escalating tariffs. In addition to disrupting supply chains, ramped-up tariffs on imported goods typically translate into higher prices, cutting into purchasing power. Such price spikes have already become evident for certain types of goods, including washing machines, which were targeted with tariffs in January.
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